September 11, 2024 - Francine makes landfall in Louisiana | CNN (2024)

Tropical Storm Francine continues to weaken as it heads further inland Thursday, but it still presents a threat of heavy rain and flooding across the Southeast.

Early Thursday, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and was moving about 20 miles northwest of New Orleans at 14 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Francine is expected to weaken into a tropical depression Thursday as it moves through Mississippi.

Tropical storm warnings remain for over 8 million people across southern Louisiana, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and the western Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are expected to remain for these areas through early Thursday.

Flooding is still a significant threat, with flood watches issued for more than 10 million people across parts of Louisiana, Florida, Mississippi, Alabama and southern Tennessee.

Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals up to 12 inches are possible through Thursday night.

Heavy winds could also cause travel delays and power outages. Over 10 million people are under wind advisories Thursday from western Tennessee and eastern Arkansas to the Florida Panhandle. That includes the cities of Memphis, Tennessee, Jackson, Mississippi and Birmingham, where gusts could reach up to 45 mph.

Storm surge also remains a concern for people in southern Louisiana, who could see surge levels up to 8 feet as high tide moves in.

The entrance to Lake Ponchartrain Causeway is closed due to Hurricane Francine in Metairie, Louisiana on September 11.

Francine quickly weakened to a tropical storm Wednesday evening just hours after making landfall in Louisiana as a destructive Category 2 hurricane, pelting the state with flooding rain and winds and leaving hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses without power.

Though it will continue to lose strength as it pushes inland, Francine is still capable of inflicting dangerous storm surge, flash flooding, damaging winds and tornadoes.

Here’s what you need to know:

St. James Parish officials are urging residents to stay off the streets as flooding from Francine continues, churning water through the streets and into homes.

Parish crews have been canvassing the parish and have received reports of downed trees and power lines, flooding and structural damage, the parish said in a Facebook post.

Between 4 and 6 inches of rain have fallen on the area, which was under a flood emergency at one point Wednesday.

All three of the parish’s pumps at its South Vacherie weir – a small dam-like structure – “are running and working effectively, and as rain is slowing down, they will slowly start catching up,” the parish said.

“We knew to expect an excessive amount of rain, so we have been running the pumps and pumped the basin down to around one foot,” Dufrense said.

Tropical Storm Francine has battered parts of Louisiana with heavy rainfall and powerful winds.

Here are some notable rainfall totals recorded from Francine — the bulk of which fell Wednesday:

New Orleans International Airport receives an average of about 5.11 inches of rain in September, which means it received over a month’s worth of rainfall from Francine — and most of it fell on Wednesday alone.

While the rainfall has largely moved on from New Orleans, the city is still seeing winds between 20 and 35 mph with gusts of 40-55 mph. Gusts will drop below 40 mph in the coming hours as Francine weakens and moves north of the city.

As Francine pushes farther inland, it is leaving widespread power outages in its wake, with more than 370,000 homes and businesses in the dark at about 11:45 p.m. CT, according to PowerOutage.us.

In some hard-hit areas, as much as 80 to 90% of tracked energy customers are without power.

The parishes with the most outages at this hour include:

Boarded windows and sandbags cover the windows of a Bourbon Street bar in New Orleans on September 11.

The National Weather Service in New Orleans on Wednesday night advised thatthe heaviest rainfall across the greater New Orleans area has ended. Theflash flooding threat acrossthe cityhas become less severe,though parts of the city are still likely to be impacted by some level of flooding.

A flash flood emergency has been replaced with a less severe flash flood warning for southwestern Orleans Parish, northwestern Jefferson Parish, northern St. Charles Parish and southwestern St. John the Baptist Parish, the weather service said.

This flash flood warning, which is tagged as “considerable,” is set to expire at 1:45 a.m. CT.

Flash flood emergencies are tagged as having “catastrophic flooding” – the highest tag assigned to a flash flood warning by the NWS. The weather service defines these emergencies as “a threat to life and catastrophic damage; levels rarely seen.”

The “considerable” tag is the second-highest assigned by the NWS and the agency defines these events as ones with “unusual severity - urgent action is needed.”

Though Francine has weakened to a tropical storm, a tornado threat remains across parts of the Gulf Coast.

A new tornado watch has been issued for parts of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and the coastal waters near these areas, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) said.

This watch is in effect until 6 a.m. CT.

“A few transient small supercells within the convective bands of Francine will pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes tonight into the early morning across the Watch area.This threat will gradually spread northward and inland tonight,” warns the SPC.

Tropical systems that make landfall from the Gulf of Mexico tend to generate moretornadoes than those that hit along the Atlantic coast. This is primarily because the right-front quadrant, wheretornadoactivity is most concentrated, typically remains fully onshore.

The SPC also advised that a slight risk of severe storms, or a level 2 of 5, stretches from southeastern Louisiana to parts of the Florida Panhandle through the overnight hours.

The threat shifts east on Thursday, where the strongest threat of tornadoes stretches from the Florida Panhandle to central Alabama and the far southwestern portion of Georgia.

Officials in Jefferson Parish, Louisiana, are imploring residents to stay home and off of roads as torrential rain floods the area Wednesday.

“Severe street flooding” is creating dangerous conditions in the East Bank area, the Jefferson Sheriff’s Office said in a post on X.

“Please keep the streets clear so our deputies can help those in need, and stop yourself from becoming the victim of a flooded car. Stay home, and we’ll get through this together,” the sheriff’s office advised.

Parish president Cynthia Lee Sheng echoed the request for residents to shelter at home and shared images of roads swamped with water.

The Brown family speaks with law enforcement after their power went down in the Polk Street neighborhood in Houma, Louisiana, on September 11.

Francine has weakened to a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in an 11 p.m. ET advisory.

The center of the storm is now 35 miles west-northwest of New Orleans and it is moving northeast at 16 mph.

All hurricane watches and warnings have been dropped, but tropical storm warnings continue along a southern swath of the Gulf stretching from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama-Florida state line.

The storm is still producing strong winds and flooding rain over parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi which will continue to spread northward overnight.

A flash flood emergency continues until 11:45 p.m. CT for New Orleans.Flooding continues to impact the city, but the heavy rainfall has come to an end as nearly all of the rain is now on the northern side of the system.

Residents in Morgan City, Louisiana, are being asked to stay inside as the city sees “unusual amounts of flooding” from Francine’s heavy rainfall, according to the Morgan City Police Department.

“Please allow city crews to manage the pumping station and push flood waters out the city. Please do not drive on flooded streets, this will increase the chances of homes taking on water damage,” Morgan City police said on Facebook Wednesday night.

Police previously announced a curfew in the city starting 11:00 a.m. ET Wednesday through 6 a.m. Thursday to help keep streets clear, they said in a news release.

A Carnival cruise with passengers is delayed from docking in New Orleans due to Hurricane Francine.

The Carnival Valor cruise was set to return Thursday but is now delayed as the Port of New Orleans closed ahead of Francine’s arrival, the cruise line said in a post Tuesday.

They tentatively expect the cruise to arrive Thursday afternoon, but it may be further delayed.

“As the safety of our guests and crew is our priority, we will continue to monitor the storm, factor in guidance from the National Hurricane Center, U.S. Coast Guard and the local port authorities to provide timely updates as more information becomes available,” Carnival said.

See Also

Hurricane tracker live updates: Francine downgraded to tropical depression after making landfall in LouisianaFrancine weakens to a tropical storm after making landfall in Louisiana as Category 2 hurricaneHurricane tracker live updates: Francine downgraded to tropical depression after making landfall in LouisianaTropical Storm Francine likely to become a hurricane. Will it make landfall in Texas?

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Video credit: Coco Marina

A marina in Chauvin, Louisiana, was submerged in water in just a few hours as Hurricane Francine made landfall nearby Wednesday.

Video and images captured by cameras at CoCo Marina show the facility was not flooded around 1:30 p.m. CT Wednesday. But by 5 p.m., dark floodwaters and lashing winds had moved in, leaving water blanketing a parking lot and lapping at the stairs of an office building.

The floodwaters were high enough to almost completely submerge a picnic table, video taken around 4:30 p.m. shows.

Floodwater fills a neighborhood in Houma, Louisiana, on September 11.

A flash flood emergency has been issued for New Orleans until 11:45 p.m. CDT, according to the National Weather Service.

Hurricane Francine has produced 5 to 7 inches of rain across the area and another 2 to 3 inches are expected in the next hour or two.

The emergency includes northwestern Jefferson Parish, southwestern Orleans Parish, northern St. Charles Parish and southwestern St. John the Baptist Parish in southeastern Louisiana.This watch also includes the Interstate-10 corridor.

AT&T and T-Mobile customers “across a wide area” were having issues reaching 911 services for a period of time, but it now appears to be resolved, the City of New Orleans said on social media Wednesday night.

The area includes Orleans Parish, where the City of New Orleans is located.

It is not immediately clear how large of an area was impacted or if it is still ongoing in other areas. CNN reached out to the Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness for more information.

The city encouraged those who need emergency services and can’t reach 911 to call the 10-digit emergency number 504-671-3600.

Several parishes along Louisiana’s coastline are reporting downed trees and power lines, as well as flooding, as Hurricane Francine lashes the area with high winds.

Terrebonne Parish, where Francine made landfall, is experiencing power outages and toppled trees, Chief Communications Officer Robbie Lee said.

Street flooding and downed trees were reported across Lafourche Parish, where there were over 25,000 power outages, a public information officer said.

St. James Parish, slightly inland from the coast, had downed power lines, several transformers that blew, and a carport that flew off towards the roadway, the sheriff’s office said in a post on X.

Just over 246,000 homes and businesses in Louisiana are without power Wednesday night as Francine tears through the state – more than double the number of outages reported around 7 p.m. CT, according to PowerOutage.us.

Coastal communities near where Francine made landfall are the most severely impacted.

Here are the parishes with the most outages:

Lekenya McKay sweeps floodwater out of her home in Houma, Louisiana, on September 11.

Jefferson Parish officials are urging households to limit their water usage as the parish’s large and aging sewer system has become overwhelmed by storm runoff.

“Please limit non-essential activities like washing dishes & doing laundry in an effort to minimize overloading the Parish sewerage system,” the parish said on social media.

Many residents are reporting that their toilets aren’t flushing, parish president Cynthia Lee Sheng said in a news briefing Wednesday night.

These “inflow and infiltration” issues occur when “stormwater or groundwater, which would normally go through the drainage system, actually ends up in the sewer system and overwhelms the sewer system,” Sheng explained.

If residents’ sewage systems become too full, the water may begin to back up into their homes, Sheng said.

To help relieve some of the pressure on sewage facilities, Jefferson Parish Public Works crews are using pumps and tanker trunks to drain some of the water, said Mark Drewes, director of the Public Works office.

New Orleans residents have also been asked to conserve water as several sewer pump stations in the city have been impacted by power outages and other problems, the Sewerage and Water Board of New Orleans said.

Morgan City firefighters respond to a home fire during Hurricane Francine in Morgan City, Louisiana, on September 11.

A flash flood warning was issued for New Orleans and the surrounding areas as radar showed thunderstorms with heavy rain in the area, hours after Hurricane Francine barreled ashore in Louisiana.

Approximately 1-2 inches of rain has fallen already, and an additional 2-4 inches are possible, the National Weather Service said.

The headline and post have been updated with details on the NWS New Orleans warning.

CNN Meteorologist Derek van Dam and his crew were about to go live with Erin Burnett Out Front when Lake Palourde spilled over its berm as torrential rain poured down, flooding the live location.

The crew made the quick decision to pack up their equipment and got on the road to find a safer spot.

Instead of doing his hit with Burnett on camera, Derek went live from the truck on his phone.

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Water levels at this location have climbed to more than 6 feet – technically a record, though records at Lake Palourde above Morgan City only go back 12 years. The previous record high was 5.6 feet.

Derek shared some more video from the truck:

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More than 100,000 outages are reported across Louisiana after Hurricane Francine made landfall earlier this evening, poweroutage.us says.

Some parishes on the state’s central coast have outages with over 50% of their customers.

Here are the parishes with the most outages:

Hurricane Francine is starting to weaken as the center of the storm pushes inland on Wednesday evening.

The top-end winds have lowered from 100 mph at landfall to 90 mph at 7 p.m. EDT, dropping from a Category 2 to a Category 1.

A weather station located in Dulac, near where landfall occurred last hour, reported a wind gust of 97 mph.

Francine will continue to lose steam as it traverses land and should weaken to a tropical storm by early Thursday morning as the center of the storm reaches Mississippi.

Hurricane Francine made landfall in southern Louisiana in the Parish of Terrebonne, according to a 5 p.m. CDT Wednesday update from the National Hurricane Center. The hurricane had maximum sustained winds of near 100 mph when it came ashore.

Francine rapidly intensified Wednesday afternoon, increasing its top-end winds by 35 mph in the last 24 hours. The hurricane will lose strength as it moves over land, but unleash flooding rainfall and gusty winds through the evening and overnight hours.

The storm is the first hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana since 2021’s Ida and the third hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year, the most since 2020. Hurricane Beryl slammed into Texas in July while Hurricane Debby hit Florida in August.

Conditions are already bad as we drive along I-10 from Laplace toward New Orleans. The waves of Lake Pontchartrain are churning from the impact of Francine, which has yet to make landfall.

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People watch Orleans Levee District Police patrol on Lakeshore Drive along Lake Ponchartrain in New Orleans, on September 11.

In addition to rapidly intensifying in the final hours before landfall, Hurricane Francine is also shifting further east compared to previous projections. Both of these factors will combine to deliver stronger winds and more significant impacts in the Greater New Orleans area on Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend 35 miles from the center of the storm, so it is possible that New Orleans could see some hurricane-force sustained winds (74 mph or greater) and gusts above hurricane-force are likely.

Eugene Island, on the coast of Louisiana about 20 miles south of Morgan City and 80 miles southwest of New Orleans, recorded a wind gust of 105 mph earlier this hour.

Hurricane Francine is now a Category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 p.m. ET update.

The storm is some 40 miles from Morgan City, Louisiana, and around 100 miles from New Orleans, moving northeast at 17 mph.Landfall is expected within the next few hours, according to the hurricane center.

With this strengthening, Francine has officially undergone “rapid intensification,” meaning its top-end winds have increased by at least 35 mph in 24 hours. It’s the third Atlantic hurricane to rapidly intensify so far this year.

Rapid intensification is one of the key ways that a warmer climate is impacting hurricanes.

The post was updated with more details on the forecast.

Sandbags and plastic line the door thresholds of a Bourbon Street nightclub in New Orleans' French Quarter, Wednesday.

New Orleans is preparing for potential flooding with 4-8 inches of rainfall expected, the city said Wednesday.

Ninety of the 99 drainage pump systems – which can handle one inch of rainfall in the first hour and a half an inch after that – are operational, New Orleans said in a news release.

The Department of Public Works is working to clean catch basins and flush drain lines, and vacuum trucks are operating ahead of the impending storm.

Aflood watch is in placefor much of the Louisiana coast and astorm surge warning is in place for Lakes Borgne and Pontchartrain as well as areas outside of levee protection but doesn’t apply to locations within the levee system, the city said.

“Moderate to potentially major coastal flooding could occur, with an expected surge of 3 to 5 feet in coastal areas outside the levee system,” it said.

Airlines have canceled all flights out of the Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport today, and some additional cancellations were made for Thursday morning, according to a midday status update on the airport’s website.

The airport is monitoring conditions but will stay open “unless conditions become unsafe.”

Those with flights scheduled in the coming days should check with their airline for the latest flight information, the airport said.

The eyewall, and thus some of the worst winds, of Hurricane Francine is approaching the coast of southern Louisiana, according to the National Hurricane Center at 4 p.m. ET.

A weather station on Eugene Island recently reported a sustained wind speed of 54 mph and a peak gust of 70 mph.Hurricane-force gusts (74+ mph) are likely to begin very soon.

The center of Francine is just 60 miles from Morgan City, Louisiana, and landfall is likely to occur in about two to three hours.

A person walks through a downpour as Hurricane Francine approaches the area on Wednesday in Houma, Louisiana.

Tropical storm-force winds have finally reached southern Louisiana, NOAA observations show.

Francine’s center is located about 80 miles south-southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, but its tropical storm-force winds extend 115 miles outward from that point, according to the National Hurricane Center.

An airport just west of Morgan City recently reported a wind gust of 47 mph. A nearby weather station recorded a 51 mph gust. Winds are gusting from 35 to 45 mph east of Morgan City in Plaquemines Parish.

Gusts of 39 to 73 mph are considered tropical storm-force.

Winds will get stronger as Francine approaches landfall. Hurricane-force winds in excess of 74 mph are likely to reach the coast over the next couple of hours, the National Weather Service in Lake Charles, Louisiana, warned.

Back-to-back powerful storms have slammed Louisiana in recent years. In 2020, Hurricane Laura ravaged Lake Charles in southwest Louisiana. The Category 4 storm’s ferocious winds flattened homes, toppled large vehicles, uprooted trees, left many residents without power and took dozens of lives.

Just a year later, Category 4 Hurricane Ida threw southern Louisiana into a similar chaos — except it wreaked havoc on the more populated areas in and around New Orleans. Ida dumped more than 10 inches of rain across parts of the Gulf Coast and generated a storm surge as high as 14 feet.

Hurricanes Laura and Ida were tragic examples of how human-caused climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous, and they made lasting impressions on the state and left its residents and infrastructure vulnerable to repeat damage and farther away from recovery. Years later, some residents are still waiting on financial relief, while others are in legal battles with insurance companies.

Francine will be the 12th hurricane to hit Louisiana since Hurricane Katrina devastated the state in 2005, with five of those strikes coming in the last five years. That is more hurricanes than any other state — Florida (10) and Texas (nine) — has seen in that same time period.

The tallest building in Lake Charles, Louisiana, was demolished over the weekend, after being empty for nearly four years due to irreparable damages from multiple hurricanes that have tore through the region since 2020.

The 22-story Hertz Tower, formerly known as the Capital One Tower, imploded into a pile of rubble and dust when crews set off a series of explosions inside the building. Outside, residents and observers watched and cheered as the building went down.

Lake Charles Mayor Nic Hunter described the implosion of the building as “bittersweet” and a sign of rebuilding and growth in much of Lake Charles, the Associated Press reported.

The summer of 2020 was challenging for Lake Charles residents as the double-whammy of Hurricanes Laura and Delta left a trail of destruction in the area, followed by a deadly ice storm later that winter. These back-to-back weather events showed how the climate crisis can produce both hot and cold extremes.

When storms knock out power to thousands of homes and businesses, many tend to turn to alternate sources of power such as gasoline-fueled generators. If used incorrectly, these generators can be deadly.

During the last two powerful storms that battered Louisiana — Hurricanes Laura and Ida — more people died from carbon monoxide poisoning caused by the improper use of portable generators than the actual storm itself.

CNN Meteorologist Chad Myers explains how to keep you and your household safe when using these generators.

Officials in Louisiana warned Hurricane Francine is fast approaching the state and advised those in its path to make preparations and get ready to ride out the storm.

“I would urge residents to take the necessary steps of preparing for the storm to come,” Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry said at a press conference Wednesday afternoon. “It is on our doorstep as we speak.”

Heavy rain, gusty winds and tornado-warned storms have already started to impact the state and conditions will only worsen over the next few hours ahead of landfall.

“The time to evacuate has now passed, it is the time to go to ground and hunker down,” said Jacques Thibodeaux, director of the Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness said, urging people to go somewhere safe like a shelter to ride out the storm. “We are now no longer in the ‘prepare’ for a hurricane. We are now in the ‘respond’ to a hurricane.”

New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell speaks during a press conference on Wednesday.

The storm-battered city of New Orleans is prepared for Hurricane Francine,which is fast approaching the Louisiana coast as a Category 1 storm, Mayor LaToya Cantrell said in a Wednesday news conference.

“Because we have made solid and sound investments in our infrastructure, we are prepared in [more] ways than we have ever been before,” she added, urging residents to stay home and “hunker down” during the storm.

Some of those changes include overhauling the city’s emergency communications system, according to Orleans Parish Communications District Director Karl Fashold.

“We are in the best place we’ve ever been with regard to 911 reliability,” he said. More staff members have been brought in to answer 911 calls, Fashold added.

New Orleans officials have handed out roughly 2,500 sandbags to the public to prepare for the storm. The city has also set up emergency resource centers that will open after the storm to provide necessary supplies, shelter and other assistance.

City officials urge residents to avoid downed power lines, flooded roads, and to avoid driving around Lake Pontchartrain to watch the water coming over the seawall.

When using generators during power outages, New Orleans Homeland Security director Collin Arnold warned people to be sure to use them correctly – and outside of their homes – reminding people that the city “lost more people during Hurricane Ida to generators than we did to the storm.”

Francine is introducing a new danger to the Gulf Coast as it inches closer to landfall: tornadoes.

A tornado warning was posted moments ago for portions of Louisiana’s Plaquemines Parish, according to the National Weather Service. It’s the first such warning of likely more to come Wednesday. More than 2.5 million people in parts of Louisiana – including New Orleans – and Mississippi were placed under a tornado watch Wednesday afternoon.

Along with heavy rain, damaging wind and storm surge, hurricanes also produce tornadoes. Areas to the north and east of a storm’s center are at the greatest risk, on average.

Hurricane Francine as seen from the Hammond, Louisiana, weather radar.

Francine’s eye and its eyewall are on display in this recent radar loop. The hurricane is now within range of southern Louisiana’s multiple weather radars as landfall draws ever closer.

A hurricane’s strongest winds are located in its eyewall, an area of tightly spinning winds encircling its center, or eye.

Very strong hurricanes often have an eye — free of storminess — that can be spotted on satellite imagery, but for other storms radar may provide the only clear look.

Francine is currently centered about 120 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, and is tracking northeast at 13 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. Landfall is expected late this afternoon or this evening in Louisiana.

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We are here in Morgan City, Louisiana, where Hurricane Francine is expected to make landfall later today.

The storm has been picking up the pace as it moves toward us from the southwest, and not only is the wind getting stronger here, its outer rain bands have just arrived.

It’s the first sprinkle of what could be a lot of rain – as much as 10 inches is expected in parts of southern Louisiana.

But that’s not all – right here in this spot, water levels could surge 10 feet above normal as Hurricane Francine’s winds push the ocean onto normally dry land. It’s a dangerous prospect that forecasters and emergency managers have been warning of.

A Louisiana town on the banks of Lake Pontchartrain is preparing for Francine to send water into its streets.

Flooding is serious concern in LaPlace, in St. John the Baptist Parish, due to its proximity to Lake Pontchartrain – which has born its teeth with a history of flooding issues.

The lake’s water level is already high, parish president Jaclyn Hotard said. Add potential storm surge and heavy rainfall, and officials are expecting streets and roadways to flood.

Gravity-based drainage systems send water to the lake, so if it is full, the lake’s feeder canals will flood, back up drainage systems in neighborhoods and cause flooding.

Howard just hopes the water won’t get into homes.

Boats and high water rescue vehicles from the National Guard and other agencies are at the ready, and fire and police are now on 24-hour shifts.

While Francine’s strongest winds haven’t reached the mainland yet, oil rigs out in the Gulf of Mexico are getting rocked by the hurricane.

An elevated oil platform located north of Francine’s center recently reported sustained winds of 85 mph and a gust of 101 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Peak storm surge expected from Hurricane Francine.

Francine’s strong winds will push several feet of water onto normally dry land as it approaches landfall in Louisiana later today. This phenomenon, known as storm surge, could reach dangerous levels.

Storm surge warnings are in effect for much of the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines. Multiple National Weather Service offices in the region are warning life-threatening storm surge is possible.

Evacuation orders were issued for multiple communities along the Gulf Coast this week, mainly because of the risk storm surge poses.

Depending on Francine’s exact landfall timing, storm surge levels up to 10 feet are possible, mainly along the central Louisiana coast. But any coastal locations from the greater Houston-Galveston area to the westernmost portion of the Florida Panhandle could experience at least a few feet of surge.

Here’s the X-factor: The timing of landfall matters for storm surge levels because of natural tidal cycles.

If Francine arrives around or just after low tide, the worst-case scenario for storm surge is less likely. Low tide will happen around mid-afternoon Wednesday for much of the Louisiana coast, according to NOAA observations. The tide will creep up again through the evening and peak Wednesday night, likely when Francine’s center will be inland.

Men board up a window as Francine intensifies in Morgan City, Louisiana, on September 10.

When Francine makes landfall Wednesday evening, it will be the third hurricane to slam the United States this season. No season since 2020 has had that many landfalling hurricanes in the US.

So far this year, Beryl made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Texas and Debby made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Florida.

2020 was an incredibly busy and destructive season: Six hurricanes of varying intensities slammed into the US: Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Sally, Delta and Zeta.

Since 2020, four hurricanes hit the US in total before this year: Idalia in 2023, Ian in 2022 and Ida and Nicholas in 2021.

Hurricane Francine is tracking toward Louisiana and pushing drenching rainfall over portions of the Gulf Coast. Its strong winds are now lapping at the coastline, where conditions are deteriorating and will continue to worsen over the next few hours.

Francine is packing sustained winds of 90 mph – a Category 1. The center of the hurricane is just 150 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, and is tracking northeast at 13 mph.

Francine is expected to pick up additional forward speed this afternoon while on a collision course with the Louisiana coast late this afternoon or evening, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The hurricane is contending with storm-disrupting wind shear this morning, which has helped limit its overall strength. Francine is now expected to remain a strong Category 1 hurricane at landfall instead of a Category 2, according to the NHC, but its dangerous flooding, storm surge and wind damage impacts remain unchanged.

Satellite imagery caught the sunrise this morning over the eastern half of the United States. It also captured Hurricane Francine.

Hurricane Francine churns in the western Gulf of Mexico Wednesday morning.

In the loop above, dark skies and clusters of bright, city lights are quickly replaced with daylight as the full extent of Francine is revealed by the sun.

The center of Francine was over open water in the northwest Gulf of Mexico at sunrise, but clouds and moisture influenced by the hurricane had already stretched over much of the Southeast.

Though Francine was churning in the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 1 storm overnight, it could strengthen into a Category 2 by the time it reaches Louisiana later today.

But what do these categories mean?

Hurricanes are rated 1 through 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale based on their wind speed. Damage is exponential as wind speed increases, meaning a strong Category 3 storm could do up to 60 times as much damage as a weak Category 1 storm.

Here are the main risks you can expect with each category:

Category 1: 74-95 mph

Sustained winds are enough to blow shingles off roofs and damage gutters and vinyl siding. These winds also can uproot trees and bring down branches, causing power outages and more property damage. They can damage power lines directly, too.

Category 2: 96-110 mph

Winds this strong can cause as much as 20 times the damage as those of a Category 1 storm, including extensive damage to a home’s roof and siding.

Numerous trees and power lines will most likely be damaged, blocking roads, damaging property and knocking out power for days, if not weeks.

Category 3: 111-129 mph

Now in “major hurricane” territory, wind damage is much more widespread. Well-built homes and other buildings could suffer major damage, and roofs will sustain heavy damage. Numerous trees will be damaged or uprooted. Electricity and water could be shut off for several days.

Category 4: 130-156 mph

Catastrophic damage can result from these winds. Well-built homes will be heavily damaged, with most of the roof blown away. Trees and power lines will be down. Water and power services could be out for months, with the hardest-hit places uninhabitable for weeks.

Category 5: 157 mph or greater

These are the most powerful storms on Earth. Most well-built homes will be destroyed, and many will be stripped to the foundation. Power outages could last for months, and the areas hardest hit could be uninhabitable for months.

After a head-stratchingly quiet lull in hurricane activity during what should be the busiest time of year, the Atlantic is showing concerning signs of storms to come.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center have pinpointed four areas to watch for tropical trouble in addition to Francine. While three of the four areas have a low chance for development within the next seven days, one has forecasters on high alert.

Chances for tropical development over the next seven days in the Atlantic.

That red blob shows where a patch of stormy weather – currently located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde islands – could track over the next week. It has a high chance to develop into at least a tropical depression over the next few days, according to the NHC.

It’s still too early to know how strong it could get or where it could go after it develops, but the threat bears close monitoring.

The uptick in activity comes after a lengthy lull in organized tropical development. The stretch of time between the formation of Ernesto in August and Francine this week was the longest such gap in activity during the busiest part of the season in more than 55 years.

Francine will unleash heavy rainfall over parts of the Gulf Coast this week and the highest totals are set to unfold near where the center tracks in Louisiana and Mississippi.

A level 3 of 4 risk of flooding rainfall is in place for portions of southern and eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, according to the Weather Prediction Center. Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are likely here, but some areas could end up with close to a foot of rain.

Rainfall rates in some of Francine’s most torrential storms could reach up to a staggering 4 inches per hour, the WPC warned Wednesday.

Those rainfall rates are more than enough to cause flash flooding, even for areas that are used to heavy rain.But wet conditions in Louisiana late last week have left the ground soggy and more prone to flooding.

Fortunately, Francine is expected to move through the Gulf Coast quickly, which should limit truly eye-popping rainfall amounts that storms like Beryl and Debby unloaded earlier this season.

Cars drive through rain bands along Peter Rd., just outside New Orleans, ahead of Tropical Storm Francine, in Harvey, La., on Tuesday, September 10.

Francine will strengthen as it approaches Louisiana Wednesday.

Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph+) should begin in southern Louisiana Wednesday morning. Conditions will deteriorate in Louisiana through the morning and afternoon as the center gets closer, with winds and rainfall picking up as the storm approaches.

Landfall is projected to occur late in the afternoon into the evening (4 to 8 p.m.) near Morgan City in south-central Louisiana.

Here’s when some of the worst conditions are expected to unfold (all times in CDT):

Morgan City, Louisiana

New Orleans

Lafayette, Louisiana

Mobile, Alabama

Radar shows Francine’s rain has started in Louisiana. It will get much heavier as the day goes on and the storm tracks north. As much as 8 inches could accumulate in the rainiest locations.

This radar loop shows rain from Francine pushing over the Louisiana coast.

Francine remains a formidable Category 1 hurricane this morning with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. While it hasn’t gotten any stronger over the last few hours, the hurricane has started to pick up the pace.

Its forward speed has increased from 10 mph earlier this morning to now 12 mph. The hurricane will continue to track generally to the northeast today.

Francine is expected to strengthen further and max out as a Category 2 hurricane this afternoon before making landfall in Louisiana late this afternoon or this evening.

Hurricane Francine tracks toward the US coast early Wednesday morning.