Today, Sept. 10, marks the historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the National Hurricane Center is tracking three systems, including what'sexpected to become the season's next hurricane.
Tropical Storm Francine is likely to strengthen into a hurricane Tuesday, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Francine is expected to be just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through Tuesday and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday as a Category 1 hurricane, with 90-mph wind speeds.
Anticipated impacts include heavy rain and storm surges.
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Francine is the first named storm in the Atlantic in nearly a month, after Ernesto formed on Aug. 12.
No named storms have formedsince Aug. 12despite predictions for a hyperactive season. The seasontypically peaks around Sept. 10, but that leaves 12 weeks to go until it ends Dec. 1.
Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are extremely high, which helps tropical cyclones develop and strengthen.
Historically, about two-thirds of all Atlantic hurricane activity occurs between Aug. 20 and Oct. 10, saidPhilip Klotzbach, meteorologist at Colorado State University specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts.
Elsewhere in the tropics, the Hurricane Center is tracking two other systems in the Atlantic Ocean. Both could develop into tropical depressions.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 7 a.m. EDT Sept.10:
Where is Tropical Storm Francine now? Track its path
- Location: 120 miles southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande; 425 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana
- Maximum sustained winds:65 mph
- Movement: north-northeast at 8 mph
- Pressure: 988 mb
- Next advisory:1 p.m. CDT
Spaghetti models:Latest models on where Tropical Storm Francine could make landfall
Special note about spaghetti models:Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Hurricane tracker: See active storms in the Atlantic
Texas weather watches and warnings
For an explanation of what the watches and warnings mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.
Hurricane warning:
- The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Grand Isle
Storm surge warning:
- High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana
- Vermilion Bay
- Lake Maurepas
- Lake Pontchartrain
Storm surge watch:
- Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border
- Mobile Bay
Tropical storm warning:
- High Island to Sabine Pass
- Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
- La Pesca Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
- East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including metropolitan New Orleans
- Lake Pontchartrain
- Lake Maurepas
Tropical storm watch:
- Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico
- Port Mansfield to High Island Texas
- The Alabam
A watch means that conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A warning means that conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
How strong is Tropical Storm Francine and will it impact Texas?
At 10 a.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 95.6 West.
Francine is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph. A turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight.
On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through this afternoon, and then move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, making landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday.
After landfall, the center is expected to move into Mississippi on Wednesday night or Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning, and Francine will likely become a hurricane later today or tonight.
Francine is expected to weaken quickly after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles, from the center.
The minimum central pressure reported by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 988 mb.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Francine
- There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials.
- Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday.
- Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding for much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across portions of northeast Mexico and far southern Texas into early Wednesday, and the Mid-South Wednesday night into Friday morning.
Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Francine get?
- As of 10 a.m. CDT:65 mph
- 12 hours:75 mph (Category 1 hurricane)
- 24 hours:90 mph
- 36 hours:85 mph (inland)
- 48 hours:45 mph
- 60 hours:35 mph
- 72 hours:30 mph
- 96 hours:25 mph
- 120 hours:dissipated
What impact could Tropical Storm Francine have and what areas could be affected?
- Wind: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas.
- Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico and south Texas through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northeastern coast of Mexico for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch area today and tonight, and are possible in the watch area in eastern Louisiana on Wednesday.
- Storm surge:The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
- Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
- Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
- High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft
- Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
- Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
- Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft
- Galveston Bay...1-3 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1-3 ft
- The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees.
- Rainfall: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.
- Tornadoes:A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through Wednesday night over near-coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
- Surf: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
See new 'cone of concern' used with Tropical Storm Francine
TheNational Hurricane Center first launched its new "cone of concern" for Hurricane Ernesto on Aug. 14 and is using it now with Tropical Storm Francine.
Ernesto stayed well away from Florida and the U.S., so residents didn't see many differences between the original and new cone.
With Francine already affecting Texas and a day to go before an expected landfall in Louisiana, that's not the case with thenew cone posted by the National Hurricane Center on its website.
One of the biggest differences between the two cones is that the new cone shows wind warnings issued for interior counties, not just those on the coast.
Both cones will be visible on the Hurricane Center's website. Find the new cone by going to thegraphics page for the storm,then click on "New Experimental Cone," which is highlighted in red.
Differences you'll see:
- Watches and warnings for inland counties, not just coastal areas.
- White transparent shading for the entire five-day forecast, instead of white stippling (dots) for the four- and five-day forecast.
How many named storms have hit in 2024?
With the addition of Tropical Storm Francine, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has seen six named storms:
- Tropical Storm Alberto: Made landfall on the Texas coast in June 2024 with some flooding, impacting the region less than initially forecasted.
- Hurricane Beryl: Hit the Texas coast on July 8 as a Category 1 hurricane near Matagorda, causing at least 38 deaths and setting records for tornado spin-offs.
- Tropical Storm Chris: Brought heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of Mexico in early July.
- Hurricane Debby: Made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, on Aug. 5, and caused severe damage along the East Coast, resulting in at least 10 fatalities.
- Hurricane Ernesto: Struck Puerto Rico on Aug. 24 with significant flooding, then hit Bermuda. It was a moderately strong hurricane with three indirect fatalities.
- Tropical Storm Francine: Developing in the western Gulf of Mexico, named Sept. 9 and expected to make landfall Sept. 10 as a Category 2 hurricane.
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— USA TODAY Network reporter Cheryl McCloud contributed to this report.
